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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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